Threat modeling methodology centers on asking, “What could go wrong?” and then considering mitigations to address such an eventuality. The unending calamities of history vividly demonstrate how human intuition repeatedly fails to foresee many such events until after they happen, and even then we sometimes fail to learn and act. For example, consider the 2008 financial crisis: after all the bailout money was handed out around Wall Street, Congress never confronted the glaringly obvious problem of “too big to fail” institutions. As a result, large firms continued to consolidate, concentrating power and risk in still fewer institutions, creating conditions for a repetition that appears to be a matter of “when” rather than “if”. Traditionally threat modeling has been deployed exclusively within the context of secure software engineering, but I posit that it is just as effective and important a tool for anticipating potential harms of all kinds — not just malicious exploitations.
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